After an offseason where they saw household names leave and a crew of new faces come in, the Astros begin the 2025 season with some uncertainty throughout the roster. One month into the season, I break down how the team has performed thus far.
Today is Thursday, May 1, and the Astros have a travel day as they head to the South Side of Chicago for a three game series against the White Sox – the start of a six game road trip. This past offseason, Astros fans saw several familiar faces leave the organization and a wave of new talent come in. In this article, I’ll break down and grade the teams performance through the first month of the regular season, including the batting lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen – ending with an overall grade for the club.
The first month of the season is not going to tell the story of how the next five months will go, but it is worth analyzing how this new Astros team has come out of the gates after a crazy offseason. Currently sitting at a 16-14 record and just two games back of first place in the AL East, it has been an alright start for Houston, but it could be better, so lets get to unpacking.
BATTING LINEUP: D-
The Astros offense in April has been absolutely brutal to say the least. Jeremy Pena has been the team’s best hitter so far, sporting a .282 batting average and a .791 OPS, leading him to recently being moved up to the leadoff spot in the batting order. Pena, along with teammates Jose Altuve (.725 OPS) and newcomer Isaac Paredes (.767 OPS), have been consistent contributors in the Astros lineup.
To put it bluntly, everybody else has had very bad starts to the season. Not one other regular starter in the Astros lineup has an OPS over .700 which is considered around league average. In a league with 30 teams, the Astros rank 20th or worse in batting average, OPS, and homeruns. All totaling up to an average of 3.9 runs scored per game, ranking 21st in the MLB. This could mean that the future of this season is bright for Astros fans though. Yordan Alvarez is working through a slow start and everybody in the world knows how dangerous he is when he is locked in. Newcomer Christian Walker went through an extremely tough stretch through the most of April but has come on strong in his last 10 games, hitting .263 with 3 HR and 7 RBI’s to go along with his 3x Gold Glove defense at first base. Catcher, Yainer Diaz is currently hitting .180, he is one of the best hitting-catchers in the AL and is expected to get going sooner rather than later.
Rookie Cam Smith has shown some flashes of a future superstar at the plate with 3 bombs in his first month as a big leaguer to go along with some really fine plays at his new position in right field. Smith developing into a star so quickly would not just be huge for this lineup, but for the organization as a whole to ease the departure of Kyle Tucker this offseason. A lineup consisting of Peña, Altuve, Alvarez, Paredes, Walker, Díaz and Smith certainly has the potential to be one of the best in the latter months of the season. If the bats can find consistency and create offensive synergy — where it feels like each batter is feeding off the others’ at-bats and execution — it will be a scary sight not just for the AL East, but the entire American League.
STARTING PITCHING: A
The starting pitching has been huge for Houston through the first month of the season despite a few new faces taking the mound every fifth day. The Astros’ starting rotation has shoved their way to a 3.61 ERA thus far, ranking 10th best in the MLB according to Fangraphs.com. When you look at some advanced statistics you can see just how good they have been compared to the rest of the league so far. Astros starting pitching is top three in the MLB in opponent batting average, WHIP, and Batting average on balls in play (BABIP), while also ranking in the top five in K/9.
When looking at individual standouts it’s impossible to look past what Hunter Brown has done to start the year. In six starts, Brown has logged 37 innings the tune of a 1.22 ERA and a WHIP sitting at 0.84, earning him AL Pitcher of the Month honors for April. Brown has carried over his dominance he finished last season with and is primed to make a run at the AL CY Young award if he maintains this level of performance. Along with Brown, a couple new faces have had some nice starts to the season. Hayden Wesneski, part of the return from the Tucker trade, has logged 27 innings in five starts with a 3.86 ERA and a WHIP right where you want it at 1.00. Ryan Gusto, who’s getting his first ever MLB action this season, has a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through four starts so far. Wesneski and Gusto stepping up and performing well is exactly what the Astros ordered while dealing with Spencer Arrighetti going down with an injury and familiar faces in the rotation Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco scuffling out of the gates in 2025. For Blanco and Valdez, their problem this year has come from the longball, which is ultra rare for Valdez. If those two guys can find their stride we could see the Astros’ starters have some very dominant months this summer.
The starting pitching doing as well as it has so far is a nightmare for the AL East division because they are not at full strength and some of their best arms are struggling so far as I said. Every baseball fan knows Valdez is a premier lefty in the MLB, having him and Brown as a one - two punch followed up by a bunch of guys with ERAs near 3.00 and WHIPs near 1.00 is certainly a recipe for success that can carry a team into the postseason. The Astros offense should be able to take some pressure off of themselves knowing that their guys on the mound wont make it hard for them to score enough runs to win.
BULLPEN: A+
No matter which way you slice it the Astros bullpen has been absolutely dominant through one month. Houston’s relief pitchers rank top three in the whole MLB in ERA, WHIP, opponent on-base %, walks allowed, LOB%, K/9, and BB/9, with the cherry on top being they are ranked first in K/BB ratio. The arms running in from right-center field at Daikin Park have been nasty so far, and the numbers back that up.
After a turbulent 2024 campaign Josh Hader is back to being arguably the best closer in the MLB as he has racked up eight saves in eight opportunities with a 1.80 ERA after allowing just three runs through 15 innings so far. Hader’s ability to go multiple innings and perform well in non-save opportunities is something that already seems to have improved from last season. His setup man, Bryan Abreu, is looking like his dominant self to begin the 2025 campaign as well. Abreu has racked up 18 strikeouts in just 13 innings, working himself to a 2.08 ERA, maintaining his status as one of the most shut-down 8th inning guys in the entire MLB.
To go along with those two stars in the back end of the bullpen, lefties Steven Okert and Bryan King have surprised a lot of people throughout April. Okert has logged 13 innings and allowed just one earned run to his name that came on a grand slam hit by Randy Arozarena when Okert was brought into a jam during a game in Seattle. King is sitting pretty with a 1.84 ERA through 14 innings, both him and Okert have WHIPs under 1.00 and opponents are batting less than .180 against them both.
Both of these guys’ development has been much needed by the Astros not just performance wise, but because they are left handed as well. Besides Hader, who is obviously only used in save opportunities or tie games in the ninth inning or later, the Astros have been without good left-handed relievers for some years now. King and Okert’s high production will allow for Joe Espada to work matchups well, especially late in games where the advantage for a pitcher or hitter in an at-bat is magnified.
The bullpen’s production to far has gone hand in hand with the starting rotation, leading the Astros to having one of the best pitching staffs as a whole. This has to be an extremely good feeling for Espada and his staff as well as the fans, because they all know this kind of pitching will be lethal to pair with a batting lineup containing a red hot Yordan Alvarez when that time inevitably comes this season.
OVERALL: B-
My overall grade for the Astros first month of 2025 is a B-. One month is a small sample size and even for dominant MLB team, you’re most likely not pulling away in the standings just one month in. However I cannot ignore the fact that if the offense could just be consistently average, the Astros could be sitting at a record much better than the 16-14 they are currently at. The fact that some of the best bats in the lineup are the ones struggling the most is a good sign in my eyes. There’s a reason you don’t evaluate players based on 30 games and you do evaluate them based on 162. Those big names, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz batting at or below .200 right now are eventually going to sky rocket to their usual production at the plate. If that can be combined with the guys who are already hitting well on top of dominance from the pitching staff, then we might be looking up in October to another championship series coming through Houston.
Add comment
Comments